Massa’s “soy dollar” managed to accumulate sales of 5.7 million tons in six days at an exchange rate of $200: this is more than what was predicted in the best of the hypotheses for the whole month according to the stock exchange.Rosario Trade; and during this week, 8,873 trucks entered the port, double the number of the previous 7 days (4,850 trucks).
This was the result of 40% improvement in soybean exports – the dollar went to $200 compared to $140 in the last week of August-; and this implies a 60% (US$1,600 million) strengthening in the Central Bank’s net reserves.
Mass policy, in short, is equivalent to temporary devaluation of 40%lasting one month (September).
That measure would exceed September’s forecast figure of 5.7 million tonnes, perhaps as much as 1.2 million tonnes above initial estimates.
This is a sample of extraordinary power of incentives in an advanced food economy like Argentina, whose nature is absolutely capitalist from the start or even before.
The reason why capitalism is a mechanism of accumulation based on an incentive structure is that by its very nature it is a continuous bet on the future, provided that profits can exceed invested capital.
But the most important thing about what happened to the “mass dollar” is that it shows, as a simple diagram, what can happen if it is implemented historic commitment to productive and export explosionwhich places Argentina in a leading role in the global economy of the 21st century.
This historic leap stems from the unbeatable combination that Argentina has of exceptional natural resources with advanced knowledge and human capital, which is the hallmark of national identity.
The real is the actual and the possible. Argentina received more than USD 30 billion in agricultural food exports in the first 6 months of 2022, an absolute historical record; and will exceed US$100,000 million in overseas sales at the end of the year.
This happens in a world crisscrossed by a dual food and energy crisis unleashed by the war in Ukraine and trade sanctions imposed on Russia by the US, the European Union and the UK.
This gave Argentina new international significanceas the only major global producer of agricultural food – along with Brazil – away from war zones.
This was clearly demonstrated by the way Sergio Massa was received in the USA. The international system today requires very little of Argentina. Just a few basic rules for fiscal adjustment and eventual reduction of inflation, which is one of the three highest in the world.
What really matters to the global system is that Argentina is rapidly increasing its agricultural food exports, added to the rapid implementation of Vaca Muerta’s extraordinary energy potential.
Therefore, if a new economic system consisting of a single exchange market and the abolition of withholdings is established as soon as possible, the impact of exports can be monumental and practically instantly.
The calculation that can be made is this: if Argentina triples its agri-food sales in the next 3/5 years to US$150,000 million / US$180,000 million, it can immediately put this huge potential on the world market , because the global system demands this and more.
This would allow the resolution of the chronic crisis in the external sector caused by the lack of sufficient dollars from real exports; Y the example of agribusiness would involve other economic activitiesFirst of all, energy (Dead cow + green hydrogen), mining (lithium, copper and all the metals that Chile has because the Cordilleras are the same) and finally, and this is the great trump card of the 21st century, the knowledge industry, the most competitive variable of the Argentinians.
This surge in exports of historical magnitude, which ends with the chronic crisis of the external sector that has dragged the political system itself several times, is the only thing that can guarantee the stability of the Argentine exchange rate in the medium / long term, which is a major macroeconomic component of the country’s success.