Republicans are gaining ground among Hispanic voters

According to the survey, Republicans gained ground among Hispanic voters by 13% more than in 2018. On the same dates in 2018, only 22% of Hispanic voters planned to vote Republican in the legislative elections, which renew a third of the Senate and all House of Representatives and which take place right in the middle of the presidential election. term of four years.

That figure is nearly double the number of Hispanic voters who voted Republican in the 2016 presidential election that Donald Trump won, in which he received 18 percent of the Hispanic vote.

58 percent of those polled have a favorable view of Democratic President Joe Biden, whose policy agenda, such as canceling student debt, banning assault weapons and supporting abortion rights, has received overwhelming support, according to the survey. Although nationally, Biden’s approval rating remains well below 50%, despite the fact that he gained ground in August after hitting a low of 37.5% in July due to high inflation plaguing Americans.

Right now, this community is very interested in the elections. If they were held now, 63% say they would vote.

“There is a lot of interest,” even though more than half of Latino voters have not been contacted by any campaign or party, said Arturo Vargas, NALEO’s executive director.

Latino voters were disproportionately affected by COVID-19, but now have other issues on their minds.

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According to the survey, 48% prioritized inflation and the rising cost of living.

Next is the issue of abortion (28%), an issue that has dominated political debate since the US Supreme Court blew it up last June. Only 4% expressed interest in it in 2018.

25% mentioned gun control and wage improvements.

The differences are noticeable in relation to 2018, when the protection of migrants was listed as the second most important issue. It is now relegated to eighth position.

The same happened with COVID-19, the main issue in the 2020 follow-up survey, which now evokes indifference.

The results of the first week “should be a wake-up call for both parties,” says Arturo.

According to the study, social networks play an important role as a source of political information for Latin Americans, especially YouTube and Facebook, as well as some television networks. 30% reported on the conservative Fox News channel.

The poll was conducted Sept. 2-11 among 400 Latino voters with a margin of error of +/-4.9%.

The panorama

Democrats, in the voice of President Joe Biden, accuse Republicans of being “semi-fascists.” Donald Trump’s supporters respond by labeling supporters of the current ruling party as “left-wing radicals”. This situation further alienates them from each other because the Democrats are becoming more Democratic and the Republicans are becoming more Republican. And in the midst of this political game, polarization is the prevailing subject in the electoral scenario.

According to a survey conducted by the company YouGov and The Economist, 66% of Americans believe that political divisions have increased since 2021. Only 8% believe that political polarization in the country has decreased. According to multiple polls, Republicans should win the House and Senate .

It’s a landscape that shows signs of change, mostly due to anti-abortion politics, according to experts and analysts. The unknown for the Democrats continues to be Biden himself, the inflation determinant that puts him in pyrrhic popularity ratings, although he has improved very slightly recently.

According to the survey, voters who gave their opinion would change their voting decision based on the issue of the economy, as is usually the case. A strong or at least balanced economy favors the ruling party in the White House. Otherwise, whether due to external factors such as the legacy depreciation the country suffered due to the shutdown of the economy during the coronavirus pandemic or the extraordinary spending that could affect it further, the voter always passes the bill to the presidency. He recently succeeded Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George HW Bush in 1994.

The Republican electorate is convinced and united in its disapproval of the Biden administration. Instead, Democrats are quietly divided by the president’s approval rating. Meanwhile, the investigation into Donald Trump has further polarized the political environment. “He should be tried, prosecuted, disqualified,” some say of his alleged involvement in the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol and the removal of classified government documents, while others argue with equal force that this is “a modern-day witch hunt , to try to weaken its power.

Given recent history, the midterm elections have the potential to be devastating for the party that holds the White House. It happened to both Republicans and Democrats: Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump.

A statistical analysis carried out by the CBS network highlights that the Republicans lead the projections for the House of Representatives, where they will get 230 seats to 205 for the Democrats. To control the House, 218 representatives are enough.

El Universal columnist Leon Krause argues that “for the Democrats, losing control of Congress in the middle of Joe Biden’s presidency would be very serious. The district draw favors the GOP, so it will be very difficult for Democrats to regain control of the legislature if they lose it now. That may be true in future elections, but a defeat of this caliber with two years left in Biden’s presidency would not only end any legislative aspirations, but open the door to Donald Trump’s 2024 run.”

Meanwhile, 34 of the 100 Senate seats are up for grabs, and things could turn favorable for Republicans there as well. Of the 34, there are forecast studies that suggest 10 are conservative, meaning they could benefit or hurt both Democrats and Republicans.

Digital media The Cook Political Report highlighted that four of them are decisive, of which Democrats defend three (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada) and Republicans one (Wisconsin). To complete the list of 11, we have Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Colorado and New Hampshire. Of the 435 congressional districts, analysts say only a few are in real contention. The Cook Political Report puts that number at 33, with Democrats holding 25 and Republicans holding 9. In at least 10, Republicans are favorites in the polls.

Journalist Luis Leonel Leon, executive producer of KVC Media, emphasized that “a president without a majority will face gridlock when he tries to promote legislation that tries to mitigate his mistakes and continue to push the country toward disaster. It is no secret that Washington pursues an obstructionist policy. There is a real possibility that Biden could lose both majorities, which would not only make his term difficult, but could derail Democratic campaigns focused on constantly tarnishing Trump’s image and his legacy of actions on behalf of the American middle class. Perhaps this long-awaited awkward era has just arrived for the party of Biden, Obama and Clinton, as Republicans launch investigations into the shady Hunter, the president’s son, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the Department of Justice, the FBI and others. There are millions of Americans who point to them. This is not a game, this is very dangerous quicksand. At a time when, according to analysts, the rate of polarization is comparable to that of the civil war and much higher than when Trump was accused of polarizing the country and after Biden was sold as a great unifier.

In the results, we cannot ignore the Trump effect. Of the 10 Republican representatives who voted to impeach Trump, only two remain up for re-election.

The rest announced their retirement or were defeated by opponents backed by the former president. However, this constant was broken or suffered a setback with the new election failure of the former Republican governor of Alaska Sarah Palin, who lost the special election for the state’s only seat in the House of Representatives in a test of sorts for the upcoming Election. His opponent was Democrat Mary Peltola, the first Alaska Native to go to Congress. Palin is seeking to return to politics, running with Trump’s support for the seat vacated by the death last March of Republican Don Young, who had held it for 49 years.

Alaska is a conservative state. There, Democratic presidential candidates have not won in more than half a century. On the other hand, voter turnout can be crucial, and at this point, willingness to vote is higher among Republicans than among Democrats, according to several preliminary surveys. The difference will be 4% more.

Summary

This year, 34 of the 100 Senate seats will be contested. All in the House of Representatives. (435 chairs). 36 states will hold gubernatorial elections: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Wisconsin, and Wyoming, as well as three territories: Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the Virgin Islands.

The table is set for an election that could be historic. The countdown begins.

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